A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
